TENNESSEE – Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville and Chattanooga face another winter in which relatively modest historical snowfall totals can still produce significant disruptions. Tennessee’s statewide weather-station average is approximately 4.39 inches of snow annually, but El Niño does not eliminate snowstorms, dangerous cold or icy highways. Winter conditions can persist through March.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), its October 15, 2026, outlook favors above-normal temperatures across Tennessee for December through February, generally within the 33%–50% probability categories. Precipitation probabilities vary geographically, with wetter-than-normal conditions favored toward eastern and southeastern Tennessee and less pronounced signals elsewhere. These seasonal outlooks address temperatures and total precipitation, not specific snowfall predictions.
What Tennessee’s Snowfall History Actually Shows Tennessee’s 4.39-inch statewide historical average reflects weather-station measurements rather than snowfall expected in any individual community…