Lake Mead probably won’t crash below the symbolic 1,000-foot mark over the next two years after all, according to an updated federal forecast released Wednesday. The reservoir that supplies water to Las Vegas and much of the Southwest was measured at 1,037.58 feet at noon that day, still its lowest level since the lake was first filled in the 1930s.
The Bureau of Reclamation’s October forecast, as reported by KLAS 8 News Now, projects Lake Mead will bottom out at 1,007.73 feet in July 2027 before climbing slightly to 1,009.85 feet by July 2028. That July 2028 number is nearly 13 feet higher than the agency’s previous projection for the same month, which had put the lake at just 996.96 feet, below the 1,000-foot threshold that has loomed over water managers for years. The station’s report notes other months in the new forecast run almost 17 feet higher than last month’s version.
Lake Powell, the nation’s other giant Colorado River reservoir, also got a bump in the new numbers. The October forecast places Powell at 3,521.54 feet in March 2028, about three feet higher than September’s projection, with other months showing gains of five to six feet, per the same report.
Why the Numbers Moved
Reclamation did not offer any commentary alongside its updated figures, and 8 News Now said it had requested comment from agency officials. The station’s report floated one possible explanation: the improved forecasts could be tied to weather patterns associated with El Niño or to other observations feeding into Reclamation’s models, though that link was described as uncertain rather than confirmed…