Louisville, Kentucky — The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Kentucky under a Day 4 severe weather outlook for Thursday, February 19, 2026, signaling a notable early heads-up for potential strong storms later this week. The outlook highlights a 15–29% probability of severe storms within 25 miles of any given point, which meteorologists say is significant at this lead time.
The highlighted area covers a broad portion of the state, including Louisville, Lexington, Frankfort, Bowling Green, Owensboro, Madisonville, and Paducah. Northern communities near Covington are also included in the risk zone, while southeastern cities such as London, Corbin, Williamsburg, and Prestonsburg sit closer to the edge of the outlined area.
What the 15–29% Risk Means
A 15–29% risk does not mean severe weather is guaranteed. Instead, it reflects the probability of at least one severe thunderstorm occurring within 25 miles of any location inside the shaded area. For a Day 4 forecast, this level of probability indicates that atmospheric ingredients could align to support strong storms.
Forecasters emphasize that this is not a warning, but rather an early alert that the broader weather pattern is trending toward instability. As additional data becomes available over the next several days, timing and severity details will become clearer…