Despite the start of fall today, the weather pattern will stay active for a few more days, including the threat of severe storms, before cooler and more stable conditions settle in later this week.
What can we expect Today?
This morning, a few scattered showers and storms are moving through extreme southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. These should exit the area by the early morning hours.
For the rest of the day, conditions are expected to remain mostly dry across the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies.
A slight chance will remain for a few isolated storms this afternoon along the Oklahoma and Arkansas state line region.
When will storms return?
As we move into the overnight hours and early Tuesday morning, a complex of storms known as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) is likely to form and track from southern Kansas through northeastern Oklahoma.
The main threats with this system will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas. Some of these storms could be severe, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. There will remain a low-end probability of a brief tornado warning.
This graphic represents the current risk of severe weather.
As storms move east of our area after early Tuesday morning, a brief lull in activity is expected before another round of potentially stronger to more severe storms attempts to develop across part of eastern OK into western Arkansas. Some of these may also become severe, with all modes of severe weather possible.
This graphic represents the potential for severe weather Tuesday. Part of this risk outlook could be slightly higher in subsequent updates.
When will we see more fall-like weather?
A cold front is expected to pass through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a minor drop in temperatures and ushering in a more fall-like weather pattern for the remainder of the week…