SOUTHERN PLAINS — A more active weather pattern is expected to return to the Southern Plains by mid-next week, bringing the region its best chance for meaningful rainfall and thunderstorms in several weeks. Forecast models show a high-confidence setup supporting widespread precipitation from Oklahoma and North Texas into Arkansas and Louisiana, with rainfall increasing through late next week and continuing into the weekend.
Heaviest Rainfall Expected East of I-35
Meteorologists highlight strong signals for a broad swath of ½ inch to over 1 inch of rainfall east of Interstate 35 in both Oklahoma and Texas. Areas east of Highway 281 are also projected to receive ¼ to ½ inch, driven by moisture return from the Gulf and repeated waves of lift moving across the region.
Cities including Dallas–Fort Worth, Tulsa, Shreveport, and Little Rock are positioned to receive some of the highest rainfall totals, with pockets potentially exceeding 1.5 to 2 inches by the end of the event. This stretch of moisture will mark a notable shift after several drier weeks across the Southern Plains.
City-by-City Rainfall Expectations
Forecast guidance indicates a widespread precipitation zone, with expected totals including:
- Dallas–Fort Worth: 0.75–1.5 inches
- Tulsa: 0.75–1.5 inches
- Little Rock: 1.5–2 inches
- Shreveport: 1–1.5 inches
- Texoma region: 0.50–1.25 inches
- Oklahoma City: 0.5–0.75 inches
- Austin: 0.25–0.50 inches
- Houston: 0.25–0.50 inches
- San Antonio: 0.10–0.25 inches
- Corpus Christi: 0.10–0.25 inches
The concentrated rainfall across Arkansas and northern Louisiana will come from multiple disturbances tracking along a strengthening temperature gradient, providing repeated rounds of lift and moisture convergence.
Pattern Shift Expected to Continue Into the Weekend
The incoming unsettled pattern is expected to begin strengthening by the middle of next week and persist for seven to ten days, producing daily rain or storm chances for areas east of I-35. While severe weather potential is still uncertain, the moisture return alone will help break the dry stretch many Southern Plains communities have been experiencing since early December.
Light to moderate rainfall will dominate early in the period, followed by stronger and more organized systems late week into the weekend. Forecasters note that soil conditions across parts of Texas and Oklahoma remain relatively dry, meaning widespread flooding is not expected at this stage, though localized low-lying or poor-drainage issues cannot be ruled out.
Moisture Surge Could Help Ease Short-Term Dryness
The projected rainfall totals are expected to offer meaningful short-term relief for regions that have seen limited precipitation over the past month. Though not a drought-ending event, the moisture will help stabilize soil, reduce wildfire risk, and support early-year agricultural needs across the Southern Plains. For continued updates on regional storm development and national weather trends, keep following NapervilleLocal.com…