DALLAS, TEXAS — A developing weather pattern between February 28 and March 3 is drawing attention from forecasters across the south-central United States, with model guidance signaling a possible setup for severe thunderstorms from Texas into Oklahoma and Arkansas. While overall confidence remains low at this range, ensemble data shows a fairly consistent signal for western U.S. troughing, a key ingredient for spring-like severe weather outbreaks.
Meteorologists emphasize that this is a pattern to monitor, not a confirmed outbreak — but the atmospheric pieces are beginning to align.
Ensemble Data Flags South-Central Risk Corridor
Probability maps from ensemble guidance highlight a corridor stretching from north-central Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and at times expanding toward western Arkansas.
The signal strengthens gradually between:
- Friday, February 28
- Sunday, March 1
- Tuesday, March 3
Each successive map shows a modest but notable probability zone centered near the Red River Valley, extending northeastward toward the Arkansas border…