LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — Arkansas is experiencing a dramatic weather divide this Sunday, with the western half of the state dealing with incoming showers and storm chances while the eastern half bakes under warm, dry, and breezy conditions that are raising elevated fire weather concerns. The contrast across the state is striking — Fayetteville and Fort Smith are sitting under an 80% chance of rain while Helena and Lake Village to the east have zero percent rain probability and temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80s.
Western Arkansas Soaked With Up to 80% Rain Chances
Showers are already moving into western Arkansas this morning, bringing the highest rain probabilities in the state to communities along and west of the I-49 corridor. Fayetteville and Fort Smith lead the state with an 80% chance of rain today, followed closely by Mena at 70% and De Queen and Texarkana at 60%.
Moving slightly eastward, Harrison carries a 50% chance, Russellville sits at 50%, and Hot Springs and Arkadelphia are both at 40%. The rain is associated with an organized moisture push from the west, and while a few scattered storms are possible later today alongside the showers, the severe threat is considered extremely low across the entire western half of the state.
Central Arkansas Sees a Sharp Dropoff in Rain Chances
Through the central corridor of the state, rain probabilities drop off sharply. Little Rock sits at just 20%, with Searcy also at 20% and Clinton at 30%. Pine Bluff carries only a 10% chance, and Monticello sits at 10% as well.
This middle zone of the state represents the transition area between the wet west and the dry east, where clouds may linger but meaningful rainfall becomes increasingly unlikely through the afternoon hours.
Eastern Arkansas Dry and Fire Danger Elevated
Across the eastern half of Arkansas, the story is completely different. Jonesboro, Wynne, and Stuttgart are all sitting at just 10% rain chance, while Helena and Lake Village have a flat 0% probability of seeing any measurable rain today. These communities will remain completely dry throughout Sunday…