CALIFORNIA — A powerful Pacific storm is taking aim at Southern California next week, with multiple model runs showing a 250mb jet streak near 180 knots directed straight at Los Angeles from Monday morning through late Wednesday night. The setup, highlighted in Wednesday afternoon guidance, signals a prolonged period of heavy rain and significant impacts across coastal and interior portions of the state.
The latest consistent runs of the European (EU1) and GFS models show the upper-level jet core slamming into the Southern California coastline, creating a strong atmospheric river–type configuration. When jet energy of that magnitude aligns with deep Pacific moisture, it dramatically increases rainfall efficiency — especially along south-facing mountain slopes and coastal terrain.
998mb Low and Strong Pacific Feed Drive the Storm
Forecast maps valid around 12z Wednesday, February 18, 2026, show a developing 998mb surface low positioned near or just offshore of California. This low acts as the engine pulling in a broad plume of moisture from the Pacific Ocean.
The rainfall projections on the model graphics indicate:
- 3.7 to 8.5 inches of total rainfall in parts of Southern California
- Widespread totals above 2 to 4 inches across coastal and valley areas
- Higher amounts possible in terrain-favored regions
The most intense precipitation corridor appears focused across Los Angeles County, Ventura County, and surrounding coastal ranges, with heavy bands extending into inland valleys and mountain zones.
Rainfall Bullseyes Over Southern California
Zoomed rainfall guidance highlights localized maxima exceeding 5 inches, with embedded pockets near or above 7 inches in the most persistent bands…