A couple tweaks in the data regards to the timeline of storms today have been apparent this morning. Let’s dive into what you should expect in regards to severe storms later today.
Timing
Let’s get to the most important factory first, the timing. The biggest difference between yesterday and today in the data is that storms look to be arriving a little earlier. This means that some storms will be able to tap in to an untouched environment with high levels of instability.
A lot of the early afternoon is dry other than a few scattered downpours. Why is this important? This allows the atmosphere to continue to build instability through warmth. Most data doesn’t show a ton of widespread rain to help limit the about of storm energy we can build up today.
What we need to watch for are any storms that try to develop in front of the main line of strong storms later this evening. Some HIRES data continues to show supercells (rotating thunderstorms) that could pop-up in our area as early as 3-6PM. If this does occur, these storms would have access to an untouched environment and would have a higher tornado threat with them, if they have enough access to that instability. A lot of it will come down to whether or not we will have enough storm energy built up by then at the surface to allow them to become severe.
The issue with the data is that these supercells developing ahead of the main line of storms are not a guarantee. There is a “cap” in the atmosphere that could act as a lid and suppress storms from developing ahead of the main line this evening. If that were to occur, we wouldn’t see many, if any, cells ahead of that main line. Those that would form and not break a cap mid-afternoon could be mainly elevated and produce more hail than a tornado threat. There has to be enough unstable air and lift to break through that cap.
Still, the best chance for…