INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA — Confidence remains steady in a Thursday tornado threat across portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, despite earlier questions about instability. New probabilistic guidance from StormNet-v4 indicates that multiple tornadoes remain possible Thursday evening into the overnight hours, with the highest probabilities centered over the lower Midwest.
Forecasters stress this was never expected to be a classic “slam dunk” severe weather outbreak. Instead, it is a high-shear setup where storm organization — not widespread instability — determines the outcome.
StormNet Highlights Focused Tornado Corridor
The latest StormNet-v4 tornado probability map shows a concentrated zone of elevated risk stretching across central and southern Illinois into central Indiana and western Kentucky.
The highest probability shading appears centered near the Illinois–Indiana border, extending southeast toward Louisville, Kentucky. While probabilities are not extreme, they are significant enough to support the potential for multiple tornadoes, especially if storms mature within the strongest wind fields…