Severe weather chances have been upgraded for West Texas today as isolated storms are expected to fire up this afternoon.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center placed the West Texas region including Midland/Odessa and the Lubbock area in a slight risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon. The biggest chances for storms will be in the 3 to 7 p.m. time frame.
“There is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly over the eastern Permian Basin, Western Low Rolling Plains, and eastern Stockton Plateau,” the Midland/Odessa NWS said. “Any storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail and/or damaging winds. An isolated tornado is unlikely, but cannot be ruled out.”
The main risk for the day will be severe winds and severe hail. Currently there is a 15% severe wind risk stretching from the Texas Panhandle all the way to I-10. This is accompanied by a Cig-1 intensity risk, meaning there is an increased chance of 75+ mph winds.
“By late afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis mountains northward into the TX Panhandle,” the Storm Prediction Center said. “Forecast soundings in this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles.”
There is also a 15% hail risk for the region. This stretches along the I-27, Route 87 corridor from Amarillo down through Midland/Odessa and the I-10 region.
The tornado risk is minimal on the day, with a small 2% risk running along I-27 through Plainview…