LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) – A significant rain event is expected the next two days in the Lubbock, West Texas, and eastern New Mexico, area. The First Alert Weather Team has designated both days as First Alert Weather Days due to the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
A few, mainly light, rain showers are likely late tonight into Tuesday morning. The heavier rainfall is expected Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. This is the time-frame to be most weather aware, when widespread showers and thunderstorms will move across the region. Be especially cautious driving at night when flooding is difficult to see.
Three main ingredients are coming together to create this setup. One, tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Polo are moving across Baja California tonight and into northwest Mexico on Tuesday, bringing an unusually high amount of moisture for this time of year. Two, a near-surface southeasterly flow is pulling moisture from the Gulf. Three, a strong upper-level low-pressure system will provide the lift needed to turn that moisture into heavy rain.
Rainfall totals will vary greatly across the region. The northwestern KCBD/FOX34 viewing area, from near Tulia southwest to near Morton, likely will see the greatest rain totals. There, amounts of 1 to 2 inches may be common and some spots potentially may receive 3 to 4 inches. The eastern viewing area, especially the lower elevations off the Caprock, may receive less than half an inch.
Flooding is possible, especially near the Texas-New Mexico state line. If you were driving around Lubbock the past Friday morning, you saw firsthand how disruptive heavy rainfall can be — this event has the potential to be similar.
A Flood Watch is already in effect for the northwestern South Plains through Wednesday afternoon. This is where the greatest potential for disruptive weather is anticipated.
In addition to flooding downpours, a few severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon and evening on the Caprock. The greatest threats are expected to be wind gusts up to about 70 mph and hail up to about the size of quarters. The tornado risk is low, but a weak tornado or two is not out of the question.
Another window for severe storms may open up Wednesday afternoon and evening across the Rolling Plains, the eastern viewing area…