It’s been unusually quiet in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, and nearly a month has gone by since the last hurricane or tropical storm.
Hurricane Ernesto formed in the Atlantic on August 12, and since then, Saharan Dust as well as wind shear have kept a lid on tropical development.
Until now.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance already has strong winds — strong enough to be considered a tropical storm — however, it is missing a closed center of circulation.
Once the National Hurricane Center determines that it has a closed low, the tropical disturbance will become Tropical Storm Francine — likely sometime today.
Francine is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday, and the potential hurricane is forecast to make landfall along the Louisiana coastline by Wednesday afternoon. The animation below shows the hour-by-hour Futurecast Radar associated with potential Hurricane Francine