DALLAS, Texas — The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 4 out of 5 Moderate Risk upgrade for the Dallas-Fort Worth MetroPlex and surrounding communities, driven by higher confidence in very large to giant hail from intense supercells expected to develop across the region today. The upgrade reflects a forecast that has moved beyond possibility into expectation — intense supercells are anticipated, and where they track, giant hail is the primary and high-confidence hazard.
The Upgraded Risk Zone — What Each Area Faces
The risk map shows two concentric zones centered directly over the DFW metro:
Dark Red Core — Highest Concentration of Giant Hail Risk: The innermost zone covers the heart of the metroplex including Fort Worth, Dallas, Plano, Denton, Bridgeport, Gainesville, Denison and Greenville. This is where intense supercells are most likely to track and where the highest probability of giant hail is concentrated. Giant hail is defined as stones 2 inches or larger in diameter, and the most intense supercells in this environment have the potential to produce stones reaching baseball to softball size depending on updraft strength and storm longevity.
Orange Enhanced Risk — Surrounding Metro Communities: The broader orange zone extends from Ardmore and Durant in Oklahoma southward through Nocona, Bowie and Bridgeport on the west and Paris and Hugo on the east, reaching south through Corsicana, Hillsboro and Waco. This zone carries elevated severe weather risk with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats as supercells potentially interact with each other and grow upscale through the afternoon…