PHOENIX (AZFamily) — The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its monthly forecast for the monsoon, and the new update is less optimistic about above-normal rainfall in Arizona.
For the past several months, the CPC forecast leaned towards above-normal rainfall in this part of the country. The new forecast sits right in the middle between above-normal and below-normal rainfall.
In the graphic below, the brown colors show where the forecast leans below normal, the green colors show where it leans above normal, and the white shows where the forecast has equal chances of both.
Before you get too disappointed about the change in the forecast, let’s put a few things into context. For the past several months, the forecast leaned above normal. As an example, let’s look at the pie probability chart for the Phoenix monsoon forecast that was issued in April. Note: I could not find the May forecast archive, but it was similar to April.
Compare this to the CPC monsoon forecast that was just released on Thursday, June 19.
Notice that the chance of above normal precipitation only dropped from 39% to 33%. In other words, even though the forecast shows that the chance of a rainy monsoon has dropped, it has not dropped that much…