CHICAGO, ILLINOIS — Forecasters are flagging a significant severe weather outbreak for next Tuesday and Wednesday across a broad swath of the Midwest, with the risk zone covering Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois including major cities such as Chicago, Rockford, Aurora, Minneapolis, St. Paul, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Madison.
The kinematic environment is described as extremely favorable for long-lived complexes of thunderstorms on both days, with the primary uncertainty centered on capping. Once the cap erodes Tuesday and Wednesday evenings, severe weather is expected to continue deep into the overnight hours.
Kinematic Environment Extremely Favorable for Organized Storms
The atmospheric setup next Tuesday and Wednesday is kinematically exceptional, meaning wind shear and flow patterns aloft are highly supportive of organized, long-lived thunderstorm complexes. These systems are capable of producing widespread damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes across enormous geographic footprints over several hours.
Cap Expected to Erode by Evening Allowing Storms to Fire
The main uncertainty on both days is the atmospheric cap suppressing storm development until sufficient heating erodes it during the evening hours. Once the cap breaks, storm complexes are expected to fire and maintain themselves well into the overnight period across the affected region.
Risk Zone Spans From Fargo and Duluth Through Chicago and Omaha
The significant severe weather corridor stretches from Fargo and Duluth through Minneapolis, Eau Claire, Green Bay, Rockford, Chicago, and Aurora, then sweeps west through Sioux Falls, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Omaha. This entire zone should be considered at elevated risk on both days.
Overnight Warning Capability Critical for Both Days
Residents across the risk zone are urged to monitor forecasts closely as Tuesday approaches, ensure they have multiple ways to receive overnight warnings, and have a shelter plan in place before storms develop each evening.
Stay with NapervilleLocal.com for the latest weather updates and local forecast coverage.…