Rounds of heavy rain are forecast to move across southern Minnesota and Iowa on Monday, and the totals will be measured in inches for some.
The best chance for significant rain — we’re talking totals exceeding 2-4 inches — is in Iowa. For Minnesota, how far north do the healthy rains track? Will the Twin Cities get in on the good stuff, or will the heaviest precipitation again favor areas to the south of the metro?
Since the beginning of August, MSP Airport has measured only 0.88 inches of rain. The latest drought data show extreme drought in pockets of Minnesota, including parts of the Twin Cities metro.
Rain is coming, but how much is to be determined. Take a look below at the simulated radar from the RRFS model, which shows steady rain throughout Minnesota on Monday, and then torrential rain in Iowa late Monday night through sunrise Tuesday.
The National Blend of Models, which takes the average from all models, has widespread totals of a half-inch to an inch and a quarter for the southern two-thirds of Minnesota.
The RRFS model isn’t as bullish for the Twin Cities.
The European model gives the Twin Cities over an inch of rain, with 2+ inches along the I-90 corridor and further south into Iowa.
The severe weather threat is very low in Minnesota, but eastern Nebraska and western Iowa could get intense thunderstorms on Monday evening. Intense tornadoes are also possible, especially if morning storms clear out nd allow the atmosphere to destabilize.
Frost advisories in northern Minnesota
“Areas of frost are likely tonight into Monday morning across portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin,” the National Weather Service says.
“Light winds, clear skies, and a cool air mass will allow low temperatures to drop into the low 30s to low 40s, with low to mid 30s creating a 50–90% chance for frost,” the weather service explains…