MINNESOTA – Minneapolis, St. Paul, Duluth and Rochester face a winter outlook favoring warmer-than-normal temperatures, but Minnesota’s snowfall history shows why significant winter weather remains possible. The state’s historical weather-station average is approximately 51.7 inches of snow annually. Even during El Niño winters, snowstorms, dangerous Arctic cold and travel disruptions can continue through March.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), its October 15, 2026, outlook favors above-normal temperatures across Minnesota for December 2026 through February 2027, with probabilities generally ranging from 40% to 60%. The precipitation outlook favors below-normal totals in portions of northeastern Minnesota, while much of the state has equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal precipitation. These seasonal probabilities do not predict snowfall totals.
What Minnesota’s Snowfall History Actually Shows Minnesota’s 51.7-inch historical average reflects statewide weather-station measurements rather than snowfall at Minneapolis or any single location…