Drenching rain, increasing severe threat in Minnesota Tuesday

The weather could get ugly in Minnesota on Tuesday. Not only is there a risk of very heavy rain, there is also an elevated threat for severe storms across the southeastern half of the state.

The Storm Prediction Center already has a large area that includes far southeastern Minnesota in a level three enhanced risk for severe weather on Tuesday. The Twin Cities is just north of the enhanced risk and within a zone of a level two slight risk.

In terms of Tuesday’s severe threat, the Twin Cities might be too far north and west to get in on the nastiest storms. The machine learning models used by Colorado State University places the highest chances for severe weather south and east of the metro.

The more clear cut situation expected to unfold Tuesday is the heavy rain across central Minnesota. Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Chanhassen are predicting a wide swath of 2-4 inches of rainfall.

Here’s a look at the NAM model for Tuesday.

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