BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA — A widespread area of rain is expected to move into Alabama after midnight Saturday night, arriving during the pre-dawn hours Sunday, according to the latest HRRR model guidance. While the radar signature may look impressive at times, atmospheric instability across most of the state appears limited, keeping the severe weather threat very low for the majority of communities.
The only exception may be across Mobile County and Baldwin County, where a small amount of surface-based instability could support isolated thunder.
Large Rain Shield Expands North Through Alabama
Forecast radar projections valid around 3 a.m. Sunday (09Z) show a broad band of moderate to heavy rain stretching from coastal Louisiana and Mississippi northward into central Mississippi and western Alabama. Embedded heavier cores appear within the line, especially along and just north of the Gulf Coast.
By early Sunday morning, the rain shield is projected to overspread much of southwest and central Alabama, including areas near Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Birmingham. The northern tier of the state may see lighter, more stratiform rainfall compared to the heavier convective elements farther south…