ALABAMA – For most of the state, the upcoming weekend is expected to remain cold and dry, but attention is increasingly focused on southeast Alabama, where new global model guidance suggests light snow accumulation may be possible Sunday into early Monday. The signal is subtle but notable, especially given recent consistency in longer-range model runs.
Why Southeast Alabama Is Being Watched Closely
Recent global model guidance has been hinting at a weak disturbance developing along an Arctic front over the northern Gulf of Mexico. While most of Alabama remains on the colder and drier side of the pattern, the southeastern corner of the state sits closer to the potential interaction zone between cold air and Gulf moisture.
The latest European (ECMWF) 18z run suggests a narrow band of snow may develop near Dothan, extending eastward toward southern Georgia and possibly northeastward into parts of the eastern Carolinas.
Potential Snow Band From the Gulf Coast Into the Southeast
The model output shows a thin but organized stripe of accumulating snow, with the highest confidence corridor running through:
- Southeast Alabama, including areas near Dothan
- The Florida Panhandle, especially inland from the immediate coast
- Parts of southern Georgia, with lighter amounts farther northeast
Snow totals shown on the model maps generally range from a dusting to a few inches, with localized higher pockets where banding becomes more persistent. While exact amounts remain uncertain, the presence of a coherent snow band is enough to warrant monitoring.
Timing: Late Sunday Into Early Monday
According to the guidance shown in the data:
- Snow potential increases late Sunday
- Accumulating snow may continue into early Monday (Jan. 19)
- The event would likely be brief, with the narrow band moving steadily northeast
This timing aligns with the model’s 108-hour forecast window, meaning forecast confidence is still limited, but improving with each successive run.
Why Confidence Is Still Limited
While the European model has been consistent, meteorologists caution that:
- The disturbance is weak
- Small track shifts could dramatically change outcomes
- A slight temperature change could turn snow into cold rain or a wintry mix
The data notes that evening (00z) model runs will be especially important, as higher-resolution guidance becomes available within the next 60 hours.
What Residents Should Do Now
At this stage, the signal does not suggest a major winter storm, but it is significant for the region due to how rare accumulating snow can be.
Residents in:
- Southeast Alabama
- The Florida Panhandle
- Southern Georgia
should stay alert for forecast updates through the weekend, particularly regarding overnight temperatures, road conditions, and early-morning travel.
Bottom Line
Most of Alabama will stay cold and dry, but southeast Alabama sits in a zone where light snow is increasingly plausible Sunday into Monday. While confidence remains moderate at best, the consistency in recent model guidance means this scenario should not be dismissed…