MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE — Severe thunderstorms — and perhaps a few tornadoes — are expected to develop Sunday across parts of the Mid-South, with the threat possibly extending north into the Midwest, including portions of Illinois and Indiana.
Forecast guidance shows a strong upper-level system sweeping eastward, with dynamic support increasing along a cold front from Texas through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky, and potentially into southern Illinois and Indiana by Sunday evening.
Strong Upper-Level Dynamics Driving the Setup
Model data highlights a powerful 500mb jet streak rounding the base of a deep trough over the central United States. Wind speeds aloft appear robust from Dallas and Little Rock northeastward toward Memphis, Nashville, Louisville, and Indianapolis.
This upper-level energy will overspread a developing line of storms along the advancing cold front. Even if low-level moisture is somewhat limited due to a recent moisture sweep, forecast soundings suggest there may still be enough instability to support organized convection.
Line of Storms Likely Along the Cold Front
Guidance indicates a likely scenario involving a squall line forming from eastern Texas through Arkansas, Louisiana, and into Mississippi and Tennessee…