NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Another potent weather system will increase the severe storm potential in Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky to begin this new week. While a few strong storms are possible on Monday, the severe storm risk is much higher for Tuesday. On Tuesday, all threats will increase, including the potential for tornadoes.
Looking at Monday & Tuesday, we have a severe risk in all areas. The 11:30 a.m. Monday update has the Slight Risk, level 2 of 5, now only for far southeast Middle Tennessee, and a Marginal Risk, level 1 of 5, is in effect far all other areas. At 12:30 p.m., the Storm Prediction Center placed all of our area under an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5).
FORECAST: Middle Tennessee & Southern KentuckyWeather
Let’s look at the threats for Monday and talk storm timing. The timing of severe storms on Monday is the afternoon to late evening. Wind gusts & hail the primary severe concern, low risk for a tornado, and some storms will produce heavy rain.
RADAR | Track weather across TN live
This afternoon, sunshine will create an environment for isolated severe storm development. Not many storms expected, but where they occur some wind gusts and hail the primary concerns.
Overnight into Tuesday morning, a few more storms may increase. The primary severe concern here would be gusty wind and hail.
On Tuesday, this is the greater day of severe weather. All threats will be likely, especially damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
Looking at the tornado potential, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of Middle Tennessee & Southern Kentucky for a risk of EF-2 tornadoes or greater. This chance is about a 10% probability, but the environment is more conducive for tornado development.
For Tuesday, there will be a few showers and storms in the morning to midday hours. These should not be severe, but could be strong with gusty winds and small hail. As temperatures heat into the 80s again on Tuesday afternoon, severe storm development is likely. One line of storms is possible by midday in our region, and then individual storms may develop ahead of the main line of storms in the afternoon. The potential will be there for all severe threats. As the early evening approaches, a line of storms will take over and that will lead to a major damaging wind threat with isolated tornadoes possible. Storms end late evening, and a quieter overnight expected.
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