UNITED STATES — The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Day 2 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather across a broad portion of the southern Plains, ArkLaTex region, and the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, signaling the potential for isolated strong to severe storms from Thursday into early Friday.
The outlook highlights a developing storm system expected to move eastward, interacting with warm, moist air surging north from the Gulf of Mexico. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, forecasters warn that a few storms could produce damaging wind gusts, small hail, or a brief tornado, particularly where storms become better organized.
Primary Risk Zone Spans Southern Plains Into the Mississippi Valley
According to the SPC outlook, the core Marginal Risk area stretches from parts of north and central Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, western Tennessee, and portions of Missouri and Kentucky.
Cities and regions that could see stronger storms include:
- North and East Texas
- Central and eastern Oklahoma
- Arkansas and northern Louisiana
- Mississippi Valley communities
- Western Tennessee and nearby areas
A separate, smaller Marginal Risk area is also depicted over parts of the Southwest, though severe potential there appears more limited.
What’s Driving the Severe Weather Potential
Meteorologists point to a combination of factors contributing to Thursday’s risk:
- A strengthening upper-level disturbance moving out of the Plains
- Increasing low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
- Modest atmospheric instability developing during the afternoon and evening
While wind shear and instability are expected to remain somewhat limited, the environment may still support isolated severe storms, especially during peak heating or along advancing boundaries.
Main Hazards to Watch
At this time, the SPC indicates the primary threats include:
- Isolated damaging wind gusts
- Small hail
- A very low, but non-zero, tornado risk
Severe coverage is expected to remain scattered and localized, but even Marginal Risk days can produce impactful weather, particularly for outdoor activities, travel, or evening events.
Timing and Next Updates
Storms are expected to:
- Develop Thursday afternoon across the southern Plains
- Spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday night
- Gradually weaken or shift eastward by early Friday
Forecasters emphasize that future outlooks may adjust the risk area depending on how the atmosphere evolves. Any increase in instability or storm organization could raise concerns in later updates.
Stay Weather-Aware
Residents across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee should stay alert to forecast updates, especially if severe weather watches or warnings are issued later this week…