ATLANTA, Georgia — The Southeast United States is likely heading into an extended period without meaningful rainfall after last week’s much needed rain, with a ridge of high pressure dominating the pattern and pushing all storm energy around the region through Tuesday, May 19, 2026.
Florida will pick up a soaking in spots today, Tuesday, May 12, but outside of that isolated exception, the Southeast faces a prolonged dry stretch with only signs of rain returning late next week onward.
What the Precipitation Map Shows Through May 19
The total precipitation forecast valid through 12:00 AM Tuesday, May 19 shows a stark contrast between the wet zones to the north and west and the bone-dry Southeast:
- The driest zone on the entire map covers a large portion of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and
- , shown in gray, where total rainfall through May 19 is forecast at only 0.02 to 0.07 inches across much of the region. This is essentially no rain at all for an extended 7-day period.
- Florida stands out as the notable exception within the Southeast, where totals ranging from 0.47 to 1.17 inches are forecast across portions of the state through May 19, with the heaviest totals concentrated along the peninsula.
- The central and northern Plains are tracking the highest rainfall totals on the map, with amounts ranging from 1.49 to 2.07 inches across the upper portions of the zone shown in orange and red, valid through May 19.
- The Great Lakes region and Upper Midwest are forecast to pick up 0.63 to 1.08 inches through May 19, staying well above the near-zero totals forecast for the Southeast.
- The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are tracking 0.19 to 0.92 inches through May 19, modest but meaningful compared to the dry outlook across Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee.
Why the Southeast Will Stay Dry
A ridge of high pressure is the primary reason Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and
will go without meaningful rain through May 19. A ridge acts like a dome of sinking air that suppresses storm development and pushes weather systems around its edges rather than through the affected area:
- When a ridge dominates the Southeast pattern, storm systems that would normally bring rainfall are forced to track either north through the Plains and Midwest or south through the Gulf of Mexico, leaving Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee dry and increasingly warm.
- This is the same type of pattern that kept the Southeast below average for rainfall through much of the past several months, and it is now reasserting itself after last week’s brief break.
When Rain Returns
The dry pattern is not permanent, and forecasters are seeing early signs of rain chances returning late next week and onward:
- Late next week, beyond May 19, early signals suggest the ridge may begin to break down enough to allow moisture and storm chances to return to Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee.
- Residents across the Southeast should not expect any significant rainfall between now and approximately May 19 based on the current forecast.
- Lawn care, agriculture and water conservation efforts across Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and
- should account for this extended dry window before any meaningful rain returns.
Florida the Exception This Week
Florida remains the one bright spot for rainfall within the Southeast through May 19:
- Totals of 0.47 to 1.17 inches are forecast across portions of Florida through May 19, driven by today’s storm activity and ongoing sea breeze convection along the peninsula.
- The heaviest Florida totals on the map are concentrated along the southern and central peninsula, consistent with the scattered severe storm threat in place for Florida today.
- Even within Florida, coverage will be uneven with some spots picking up a soaking while others see little to nothing depending on storm track.
WaldronNews.com will continue tracking the extended dry pattern across Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and…