Tennessee’s hot streak on population growth just cooled off, and with it, Nashville’s best shot at more clout in Congress. Fresh federal estimates show the state’s growth slowed over the last year, trimming its recent gain to roughly 0.9%. That may not sound dramatic, but analysts say it is enough to weaken Tennessee’s odds of landing a coveted 10th U.S. House seat in the next round of reapportionment.
Why that matters locally: The congressional map the legislature pushed through in 2022, which already carved up Nashville into multiple districts, would likely remain in place if there is no new seat to force a redraw.
New numbers, new math
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Tennessee added about 63,785 people between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025. That brought the state’s population to roughly 7,315,076, a net gain of just over 400,000 residents since the 2020 census.
Those Vintage 2025 estimates shaved enough off the year-over-year pace that some reapportionment models no longer see Tennessee on a clear glide path to a 10th House seat in 2032.
Where Tennessee lands in apportionment forecasts
The American Redistricting Project’s 2025 apportionment forecast uses a three-year weighted projection based on the latest Census data. In that modeling, a hypothetical “TN-10” is now grouped among the seats most likely to be left out if apportionment were held today…