UNITED STATES — Severe weather chances are increasing for Sunday night, March 15, across portions of Tennessee, Kentucky and northern Alabama, where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a 15% risk of severe storms within 25 miles of any point — including a hatched area that signals the potential for particularly intense storms.
The latest outlook, centered on the Nashville, Tennessee forecast area, places much of Middle Tennessee and adjacent areas in an elevated threat zone as a strong system approaches.
What the 15% Hatched Risk Means
A 15% probability means there is at least a 15% chance of severe weather — defined as damaging winds, large hail or tornadoes — occurring within 25 miles of a given location.
The addition of hatching is important. That designation highlights the possibility that storms could be stronger than typical marginal setups, potentially producing:
- More widespread damaging winds
- Larger hail
- A few stronger tornadoes
Communities under the hatched area include Nashville, Clarksville, Columbia, Franklin, Murfreesboro and Bowling Green, Kentucky, as well as areas stretching south toward Florence, Alabama.
Areas Included in the Risk
The highest concern extends across:
- Western and Middle Tennessee, including Nashville and surrounding counties
- Southern and western Kentucky, including Hopkinsville and Bowling Green
- Northern Alabama, including Florence and areas near the Tennessee border
To the east, cities such as Crossville, McMinnville and toward the Knoxville and Chattanooga corridors remain in a lower, but still notable, 5–14% severe probability zone.
Timing and Storm Mode
Storms are expected to develop and intensify Sunday evening into the overnight hours…