NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) – Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast with the most impactful stretch being Sunday through Tuesday. A slow moving frontal boundary sagging in from the north combined with deep Gulf moisture will increase the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially Monday.
Sunday is the start of the higher end rain concern. Storms will start along the Gulf Parishes early in the morning and move inland around 9am. With moisture levels rising, any location that gets storms training over the same area could see quick water buildup on streets.
Monday is the day to watch most closely. Widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible with localized pockets over 5 inches where storms repeatedly track. That is the setup that can trigger rapid ponding, flooding of low lying areas, and localized flash flooding. Confidence is high that many communities will see heavy downpours, but exactly where the highest totals land will depend on small scale boundaries that cannot be pinpointed far in advance.
Tuesday still carries the potential for additional heavy rainfall, especially in areas that pick up substantial rain on Monday. Even if storms become a bit less widespread, lingering boundaries could keep locally intense downpours going, and saturated ground would make it easier for flooding to develop.
By mid to late week, the pattern trends drier with fewer storms, especially late next week into next weekend. The focus then shifts from heavy rain to heat, with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 90s and heat indices potentially approaching advisory criteria…