(KMDL-FM) – After a stormy start to Monday morning with severe weather rumbling across the lower portions of Louisiana to start the workweek things have been rather calm as far as Mother Nature is concerned. But one thing people in Abbeville, Cameron, Eunice, and Swords know, is if you don’t like the Louisiana weather give it a few minutes it will change.
Forecasters with the National Weather Service are noting those changes by asking us to make sure that you’re aware that there will be not just one, but two different opportunities for severe weather to break out in Louisiana between now and Monday morning.
In addition to the potential for damaging storms across the state and the region, forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center are also suggesting that Friday afternoon and evening, as well as Saturday morning, might also include a threat of excessive rainfall.
Excessive rainfall is when rainfall rates are faster than municipal drainage systems can drain the falling water away. In the city of Lafayette, that figure is about two inches per hour, but only for a short period of time. If a deluge goes longer you will start to see street flooding and ponding of water on roadways.
The above graphic comes from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles and as you can see South Louisiana has a nice “bullseye” right on top of it.
If you’re wondering just how much rain we might see over the next couple of days, that’s a very good question. Depending on which model you choose to follow the rainfall amounts could be barely an inch to in excess of five inches. Here’s the GRAFF Model Run from KATC Television.
The model that the National Weather Service uses for most of their forecasts is the GFS. That model predicts a lot less rain that what the GRAFF model is showing. Still it will be rather wet for any plans across the area on Friday night and during the morning hours of Saturday.
As you can see there is quite a big discrepancy between rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches and rainfall totals of 5 to 7 inches. The most likely scenario is one that falls in between those two numbers.
When Will The Rain Arrive in Louisiana on Friday?
The best speculation we can offer comes from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lake Charles. It does look as if rain chances will really ramp up in Lake Charles, Sulphur, and Jennings shortly after noon on Friday. The heavier rain should move into and over Lafayette, New Iberia, and Opelousas by 6 pm. And then the heavier showers will continue to spread eastward across the state…