While new development in San Francisco remains perennially stagnant, the condo market has begun to rebound after four years of declining appreciation, with starved buyers—many fueled by AI wealth—pushing up prices for turnkey properties in the most desirable neighborhoods.
“The market is hyper-competitive,” said Krysen Heathwood, Compass head of new development in the Western U.S., who noted that from June 2025 to June 2026, the monthly supply in the city was only around 500 units. “The turnaround started in February 2026 when the overbid rate doubled from 24% to 54%.”
In the first half of the year, she said, 20 condos, most of them on the north side of the city, sold for $1 million over asking price…