Flooding is going to be a big concern this winter during king tides, winter storms, or atmospheric rivers. If a storm happens during a king tide event, which this year takes place around Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day, 3 feet or more of flooding is possible.
But what exactly does that mean for the Bay Area? What areas will actually be affected?
The Bay Conservation and Development Commission’s Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) Program conducted a study to show the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise when it comes to impacts on transportation, vulnerable communities, future growth areas, and natural lands. It uses the concept of total water level, which accounts for multiple combinations of rising sea level, whether it be from king tides or climate change or storm surge, or all of those combined, which would be the worst-case scenario.
1 foot of water level rise
For 1 foot of total water level rise, three main areas are affected: San Rafael, Corte Madera/ Larkspur, and Martinez. San Rafael impacts include CA-101, CA-580, the SMART train and the Bay Trail. The Corte Madera/Larkspur area is also driven by impacts to US-101 and to the Larkspur Ferry Terminal. The Port of Martinez and Union Pacific Freight Rail as well as impacts to lagoons, will be the biggest concern in Martinez.
2 feet of water level rise
Two feet of total water level rise becomes much more widespread, now including Marin City, Suisun City, south Richmond, Downtown Oakland/West Oakland, San Jose, and Redwood City. In Oakland, the Downtown & Jack London Square area, Jack London Ferry Terminal, and Port of Oakland are at risk, with the nearby Port of Richmond also vulnerable. Near San Jose, lagoon and tidal marsh habitat along with Champion Station passenger rail station, VTA and Amtrak passenger rail lines, Union Pacific freight rail line, and truck traffic on SR-237 will see impacts. The Suisun-Fairfield passenger rail station would be impacted, along with the Union Pacific freight rail line in Redwood City.
3 feet of water level rise
For 3 feet of total water level rise, Napa, East Oakland/Coliseum, Alameda, Mountain View, East Palo Alto, and San Francisco Bayview/Hunters Point become concerns. Napa and East Palo Alto impacts are mostly to natural lands like depressional wetlands, lagoons, and snowy plover habitat, while East Oakland is mainly due to BART and the Oakland Airport. The Alameda cluster is driven by the Naval Air Station and Alameda Gateway Ferry Terminal, with Mountain View seeing issues along the North Bayshore and truck traffic on US-101.
4 feet of water level rise
By 4 feet of total water level rise, high consequence areas like San Francisco Mission Bay and Embarcadero emerge. People living in the areas in blue, along with Port of San Francisco, the San Francisco Ferry Terminal, a Muni bus route, and the Third Street Muni Line would be impacted…