The first significant storm of the wet season has somewhat eluded forecast models. Wednesday had been expected to be more wet in much of the Bay Area but may end up mostly dry, with the better chance of showers shifting to overnight and through much of Thursday.
Further south, in the Central Coast and Southern California, the storm will continue to pump rounds of moderate to at times heavy rain overnight on Wednesday. Some of those showers should make their way to our region this evening and overnight.
The storm will weaken and move inland Thursday. That’s when the atmosphere will become more unstable, with cold air aloft sitting over warmer, moister air near the ground — which lets that air rise quickly and raises the odds of showers with downpours or an isolated thunderstorm across much of the region.
It’s hard to say exactly where the showers will pop up. They will rotate around the weakening low-pressure system, fueled by warm ocean water feeding moisture into the air, then bump into the region’s rugged terrain. Both can briefly boost rainfall rates…