ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI — A remarkable late-December warm surge is expected to peak on Christmas Day, with forecast data pointing to more than 100 potential record-breaking temperatures across the Midwest and central Plains. Meteorologists say the setup could make Christmas 2025 one of the warmest on record for many cities in the region.
Forecast models show a strong upper-level ridge firmly positioned over the central United States, allowing unusually warm air to surge north and overpower conditions that would typically bring deep winter cold.
Midwest and Central Plains See the Greatest Impact
Temperature anomaly data shows the highest concentration of record warmth across:
- Missouri — including St. Louis and surrounding metro areas
- Illinois — especially central and southern regions
- Iowa — including Des Moines and nearby communities
- Kansas — eastern and central areas, including Kansas City
- Oklahoma — Oklahoma City and much of central Oklahoma
Daytime highs in these areas are forecast to run 25 to 35 degrees above normal, with many locations reaching the upper 50s to mid-60s, temperatures more typical of early spring than late December.
Widespread Record Highs Expected
Forecasters say more than 40 daily record highs across the Midwest and Plains alone could be challenged or broken. Some of these records have stood since the early to mid-1900s, highlighting the strength of the warm air mass expected to peak on Christmas Day.
Meteorologists stress that this is not an isolated warm spot but a broad, multi-state event, which explains the unusually high number of records at risk.
Record-Warm Lows Stretch the Event Coast to Coast
In addition to daytime warmth, forecast guidance shows over 60 record-warm overnight lows possible from California through the Midwest. Limited nighttime cooling signals just how persistent and powerful this air mass will be, especially during what is typically the coldest part of December…