WICHITA, Kansas — The historic severe weather sequence that just tore through Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin this weekend is winding down — but the atmosphere is already reloading. All eyes across the Southern Plains are now turning to the middle and late portion of this coming week, where a fresh and potentially significant severe weather stretch is taking shape from Wednesday through at least the weekend — with Thursday April 23 already carrying a 15% tornado probability across Kansas and Oklahoma.
A powerful active jet stream is forecast to return and collide with an expansive warm sector surging northward from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest by mid-week. The combination of those two ingredients — the same basic recipe that produced this weekend’s outbreak — is setting up again across the Southern Plains with Wichita, Oklahoma City, Woodward, Garden City, and Liberal sitting inside the Thursday severe weather probability area.
States and Cities Already in the Thursday Outlook
- Kansas: Wichita, Garden City, Liberal, Colby, McCook — inside the 15% tornado probability zone already outlined for Thursday April 23
- Oklahoma: Oklahoma City, Norman, Tulsa, Woodward, Fort Sill — in the southern portion of the Thursday severe weather outlook area
- Texas: Amarillo, Wichita Falls, Abilene, Dallas on the southern and eastern fringe of the Thursday risk corridor
- Nebraska: Lincoln and southern Nebraska on the northern edge of the developing severe weather setup
- Kansas-Oklahoma border region — the overlap zone where the jet stream and warm sector collision is most precisely focused for Thursday
What Thursday April 23 Is Already Showing
The 15% tornado probability outlined for Thursday covering the Wichita to Oklahoma City corridor is the early signal that this is not going to be a minor storm day.
- 15% tornado probability — already marked for the Kansas-Oklahoma corridor on Thursday, days in advance — this level of early confidence signals a well-organized severe weather setup is expected
- Active jet stream — the upper-level map shows a powerful jet stream digging back into the Central Plains by Thursday — the same upper-level support that fueled this weekend’s outbreak is returning
- Expansive warm sector — surface dew points in the mid 60s flooding northward from the Gulf Coast through Texas and into Kansas and Oklahoma by Thursday — deep, juicy moisture that fuels extreme instability
- Dew points of 63 to 66°F already showing across the warm sector in the ensemble data — that is summer-level moisture arriving in late April, providing the atmospheric fuel needed for violent storm development
- Multi-day severe weather stretch — Wednesday through at least the weekend — meaning this is not a single-day event but a prolonged active pattern
Why Wednesday Through the Weekend Matters
Thursday’s 15% tornado probability for Kansas and Oklahoma is the only day formally highlighted so far — but the broader pattern signal covers multiple days.
Wednesday begins the active stretch as the jet stream returns and the warm sector starts pushing north. Storm chances increase through the day and the atmosphere begins loading the energy that will be released Thursday…