Researchers at the University of Nebraska at Omaha have built a new model of using a criminal charge to predict a future criminal offense.
In a new study published in the journal “Criminology,” they found the risk for a reoffense drops exponentially each year after someone is criminally charged, returning to the same level as the rest of the population within about a decade.
“This study bridges a gap between prior knowledge of the age-crime curve and practical utility or criminal history in probation, parole, pretrial supervision, as well as employment background checks,” Zachary Hamilton, a professor of criminology and criminal justice and lead author of the study, wrote in a press release this week.
While current risk-assessment systems assign a fixed weight to a previous charge, the researchers said new versions of the tools should instead let the weight of a criminal record change over time…