A sweeping new study out of the University of Nebraska Omaha is upending a long-standing assumption that most people convicted of crimes end up back behind bars. Researchers who tracked more than 16 million people across five states over four decades found that 63% of people charged with a crime were never charged again, a finding that directly challenges the belief that two-thirds of offenders reoffend.
The study, titled “Criminal history’s expiration date: Evidence of prediction decay,” was published in Criminology, the flagship journal of the American Society of Criminology. As reported by KETV, lead author Zachary Hamilton said the research found the reverse of the long-held belief that two-thirds of people who commit crimes return to jail or prison. Hamilton and his team, which included researchers Alex Kigerl, Jennifer J. Tostlebe, and John Ursino, drew on criminal charge records spanning 1980 to 2020 across Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Texas, and Washington, covering more than 746 million person-year observations, according to the University of Nebraska Omaha.
Risk Fades Fast, Then Keeps Fading
The numbers show just how quickly that risk drops off. The probability of receiving a new charge after a prior offense falls from 28% in the first year to roughly 2% by year 30, according to the university, reflecting a 51% relative decline in risk during just the first seven years. The study also found that after nine to 10 years, a person’s likelihood of committing a crime is no greater than the average person’s, per the same KETV report.
That decay rate held steady regardless of state, sex, race, ethnicity, or how serious the original offense was, the university’s research notes. The study included both misdemeanors and felonies, and researchers found little difference between nonviolent and violent offenses in predicting someone’s future likelihood of committing another crime. The one exception researchers identified: adults aged 35 and older see a modestly faster decline in reoffending risk than younger adults.
Why Old Numbers Painted a Different Picture
Hamilton and his co-authors argue that earlier models claiming most released prisoners reoffend rest on flawed data. Those models cannot distinguish one person racking up several charges from several different people each picking up a single charge, the researchers said, and that blind spot lets a small share of repeat offenders inflate overall reoffending numbers…