FLORIDA — New ocean data shows the current El Niño is now the strongest and warmest on record by surface water temperatures in the Pacific’s Niño 3.4 region. Water there is running about 3.3°C, or 5.9°F, above normal. That could have big effects on Florida’s weather this fall and winter. A wetter, stormier, cloudier, and cooler winter is becoming more likely across the state.
Warmest El Niño on Record
Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific are running at levels never seen before. The Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, is also tied for the warmest El Niño on record. That index currently sits near +2.4°C, or +4.3°F, and could break the all-time record in the coming weeks.
The warmest water stretches across the central and eastern Pacific toward the coast of South America. Warm water in this region changes how weather patterns form around the world. Florida is one of the places in the U.S. most affected by strong El Niño events.
Helping Quiet the Hurricane Season
One positive effect of El Niño has already shown up this hurricane season. El Niño usually increases wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which makes it harder for storms to organize and strengthen. Greater-than-normal atmospheric stability has also helped limit tropical activity.
Aside from Hurricane Isaias, Florida has been spared from major tropical impacts this season. The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30, so only a few weeks remain. Residents should still stay alert until the season is over.
Stronger Jet Stream Steers Storms Toward Florida
El Niño’s biggest impacts on Florida usually show up in late fall and winter. During strong El Niño years, the subtropical jet stream becomes stronger and shifts farther south. That steers more storm systems and Gulf low-pressure systems across Florida and the Southeast…