Brief Outlook:
Today, the Upper Mississippi Valley, including parts of eastern Kansas, far northeastern Oklahoma, and northwestern Missouri, is the risk area for severe thunderstorms. This area should brace for the potential of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes, especially from the middle Missouri Valley area. Another risk potentially higher for tornadoes in south/central Plains as well. Continue to read on for further details.
Detailed Forecast:
Upper Levels: A pronounced mid-level trough is forecasted to move across the Plains and become negatively tilted as it nears the Upper Mississippi Valley. This dynamic will be coupled with a strong jet streak overhead, enhancing atmospheric lifting capabilities, crucial for the development and sustenance of severe thunderstorms in the region.
Surface Forecast: Surface conditions will feature a lee trough extending across the Plains, promoting the northward transport of a significantly moist low-level air mass. A surface low expected to form along the Kansas/Oklahoma border this afternoon will move toward the Mississippi Valley by evening. Along with a trailing cold front and a dryline, these features are forecasted to stimulate thunderstorm activity across the area. Anticipated surface-based CAPE values will generally be around 1500 J/kg, with locally higher values reaching 2000-2200 J/kg in some areas, which could escalate the severity of the storms (especially in central/southern Plains). Effective shear values are also expected to exceed 50 knots, favorable for severe storm development. Something to watch will be the potential for a few strong tornadoes (especially looking into the evening/overnight hours).