Winter 2022-2023 brought record snowfall to Arizona’s high country and above-average rainfall across much of the region. The drought-weary state may have breathed a sigh of relief as snowmelt refilled reservoirs and aquifers.
But that was one wet year in a long string of dry ones, and one good year won’t end a three-decade drought.
Arizona is dry, with or without drought. With just two rainy seasons — the summer monsoon and winter snowfall — the state has averaged about 12 inches of rain a year since measurements began in 1896.
But since 1994, the Southwest has experienced drier than normal conditions. Wet winters are followed by dry years, putting pressure on water supplies across the region.
“Looking at these last 31 years, 21 of those have been dry and below the long-term, 12-inch average,” said Erinanne Saffell, Arizona’s state climatologist. “Ten of them wet, but they haven’t happened all in a row which makes it harder to come out of that drought.”
Climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña can provide temporary relief or trigger short-term drought, but they are not strong enough to significantly alter long-term drought.