Thursday is one of those days where you’ll want a rain jacket just in case. The showers and storms will be scattered, so not everyone will get wet. It is already storming in Pershing, Churchill, Nye, Mineral, and Esmeralda Counties this morning at 11am. The showers are spotty and there are not are not a ton of them, but more storms will develop as the day goes on. Reno is starting to see some showers and storms as well. The cloud cover will hinder thunderstorm potential, but there is more sunshine in Lyon and Douglas County this morning. The storms will be more intense later this afternoon between 2-5pm. Storm chances go down after 7pm.
Hail, gusty winds, downpours, and fire starts are possible with any storms that do develop today. The flooding threat is marginal for Reno down through Douglas County today, but there is a slight risk for southern Lyon, Mineral, western Esmeralda, and Mono counties through later this evening.
We have plenty of moisture to work with, as seen with all of the cloud cover. Precipitable Water values are around .8 inches which is a good spot for us to be in to get rain. Overall, rain totals will be light in the Truckee Meadows, but areas south of Highway 50 could see up to a couple inches of rain in localized areas. The flooding threat is marginal for the Truckee Meadows, with a better chance for areas to the southeast of Reno. Mainly over burn scars. Rain totals will vary quite a bit, because of the nature of thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is up for Mono, Mineral, and southern Lyon Counties through 8pm because of heavy rain.
The Set up:
An area of low pressure is moving through the region, with plenty of moisture to work with. We have enough moisture to fill our skies with cloud cover. If we had more sunshine the storms would be stronger. Areas to the east of a low typically gets the most lift, which is why the Basin and Range has a decent chance of seeing some storms today. The bulk of the moisture though is to our south, which is why rain totals will be higher there. As the low moves further southeast on Friday our storm chances goes down as well…