A new study from UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography suggests that atmospheric rivers, rather than El Niño or La Niña, play a more decisive role in California’s seasonal precipitation.
Traditionally, El Niño brings heavy rain, while La Niña leads to drier conditions. However, researchers found atmospheric rivers—long, moisture-rich storm systems—can override these patterns. In 2023, despite a La Niña climate pattern, California experienced record-breaking rainfall, contradicting expectations.
“One or two atmospheric rivers can turn it into a wet year, but a weak season can mean drought,” said Rosa Luna-Niño, lead author of the study published in Climate Dynamics. This finding challenges long-held assumptions about California’s water forecasting.
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