BLOG:
The ABC 17 Stormtrack Weather Team has issued a Weather Alert Day for the risk of severe storms Wednesday. Hail is the most likely threat, with potential for damaging winds and tornadoes.
SETUP
Another low pressure system brings a warm front into the region Wednesday morning. This will build instability and potentially trigger morning thunderstorms. As the cold front sweeps through in the evening, it will bring a chance for storms in the evening. The first round may have some say in just how extensive round two is. Should we not see much activity in the morning, then we can expect more robust storms and a higher chance at severe through the evening.
TIMING
Storms may develop by 7 a.m. This scenario would spread storms across the region through noon. There still could be storms in the afternoon and evening. All of which have severe potential.
IMPACTS:
Contrary to Monday & Tuesday’s storms, hail is expected to be our primary concern. Both rounds have hail potential, but the biggest hail would be reserved for the afternoon and evening round. How prevalent that is locally will hinge on morning activity. This will also be the case with a lesser, but still serious, wind and tornado threat. Shear near the low that moves overhead will increase our tornado threat. With guidance somewhat fickle about afternoon severe due to morning activity, the greatest threat looks to be south and east of I-44. Still, the risk for mid-Missouri is greatest from the Lake of the Ozarks to I-44 in our southern most counties, after 3 p.m.