Very few changes have been made to the forecast as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained that a sliver of eastern Minnesota, including the far eastern Twin Cities metro, is on the edge of a level 3 of 5 enhanced risk for severe storms on Thursday afternoon, though the most likely zone for intense storms will be in Wisconsin.
The SPC expects “rapid thunderstorm development, or re-intensification of ongoing storms,” over central Minnesota and western Wisconsin this afternoon.
“Large hail, possibly very large and in excess of 2.5 inches in diameter, will be possible in addition to damaging wind gusts,” the SPC says. “Low-level shear will support the potential for tornadoes with mature supercells, and the risk for strong tornadoes will exist, especially towards evening as low-level shear increases.”
Here’s the area where tornadoes are possible (brown and yellow). The yellow zone is where strong tornadoes appear most likely to occur.
The zone for very large hail includes the Twin Cities metro area, though it’s possible that storms won’t be mature enough if/when they move through the Minneapolis area to produce the largest hailstones.
The damaging wind threat also increases as the storms mature…