UC San Diego scientists built a new tool that predicts the risk of sewage-contaminated water at local beaches up to five days in advance.
Why it matters: Similar to a weather forecast, families can use it to decide whether to plan a beach day, and where it will be safe to swim for the upcoming weekend.
Zoom in: The Pathogen Forecast Model, developed by Scripps Institution of Oceanography researchers, shows the sewage concentration along Coronado, Silver Strand, Imperial Beach and Playas de Tijuana shorelines.
- It uses forecasts of winds, tides, offshore currents, waves and river flow to estimate contamination levels and the risk of illness for swimmers.
- Color-coordinated indicators show the likelihood of getting sick: green is low (less than 1%), yellow is moderate (1%-10%) and red is high (10%+).
Threat level: Swimming in the bacteria-contaminated water can make people sick with norovirus — a highly contagious stomach bug that can cause vomiting, diarrhea and severe gastrointestinal problems…