Two years after California pulled together a special task force to keep public transit from going over a financial cliff, the state has ended up with a detailed restatement of the problem instead of a clear way to pay for a fix. The final report lays out why agencies are squeezed – sagging ridership, rising labor costs and a pricey transition to zero-emission buses – but it stops short of offering many new, concrete revenue ideas. That leaves operators such as San Diego’s Metropolitan Transit System staring down real budget holes that could translate into service cuts or delayed projects.
Task force report lands with a thud
As reported by Times of San Diego, state lawmakers created the Transit Transformation Task Force under SB125 in 2023 to deliver “transformative” fixes for a looming transit funding crisis. Instead, members and local officials say the final product mostly stopped at diagnosis. Senator Catherine Blakespear labeled the report “completely underwhelming,” and MTS CEO Sharon Cooney told the outlet that the document “fell short of providing sufficient detail and recommendations” to support sustainable long-term transit funding.
Zero-emission fleets and falling revenue
CalSTA documents about an 18% decline in transit reliability across modes from 2013 to 2023 and highlights operational strains tied to the early rollout of zero-emission buses. Those challenges include higher up-front vehicle and infrastructure costs along with longer repair times, all of which put extra pressure on operating budgets that are already tight.
The Legislative Analyst’s Office projects that State Transit Assistance revenue tied to diesel fuel sales could fall by roughly $300 million by 2035, a drop that would further erode a key source of operating funds just as agencies are being pushed to modernize fleets and restore service.
San Diego’s shortfall is already material
In San Diego, the squeeze is not hypothetical. MTS materials show a projected budget gap of roughly $120 million by fiscal 2029. To cope, the agency says it has already delayed expansion plans, slowed some zero-emission bus purchases and shifted capital dollars into day-to-day operations to keep service running.
Times of San Diego also noted that bus operator wages are up about 40% since 2019 and that flat local sales-tax receipts, a major piece of MTS revenue, leave the agency with limited options to quickly plug the gap…