In an unexpected turn of weather events, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded its tornado outlook to include San Francisco, though the threat remains relatively low, standing below 5%.
The National Weather Service has identified the most likely time for a waterspout or tornado as between 2 to 5 p.m., focusing on specific areas outlined in the provided graphic.
According to the National Weather Service’s latest update, isolated severe storms are anticipated across parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida this afternoon, extending to south Florida and the Keys late tonight. Of particular note is the very limited risk for a brief or weak tornado near the central California Coast, primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours.
The weather dynamics leading to this potential tornado risk stem from a short-wave trough within the broader cyclonic circulation off the California coast. As this trough moves northeastward toward the central coast, an associated and well-developed surface low is expected to approach later in the day and tonight. Convection ahead of the low and cold front is likely to move onshore, with limited lightning expected due to meager buoyancy.