Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather says the Bay Area housing scene looks more like a market easing off the boil than one on the verge of blowing up. Listings are rising and buyers have more leverage, but many owners are sitting on big piles of pandemic-era equity and rock-bottom mortgages, which makes them reluctant to sell at a steep loss. Layer in California tax protections like Proposition 13, and her view is that a broad 2007-style crash is less likely than a patchwork of local corrections. For San Franciscans, that still means more options and more room to negotiate, not the wipeout some doomers are hoping for.
In a Q&A, Fairweather told the San Francisco Chronicle she does not anticipate that prices will crash, arguing that owners have built up record equity and are not showing the signs of distressed selling. She also walks through the math behind that stance in a short YouTube explainer. Her point is that local price swings, including sharp drops in places like Austin, do not automatically translate into a nationwide collapse…