A multi-wave storm system is set to drench portions of California and Oregon starting late on February 14, 2026, with the heaviest impacts expected to stretch through February 18. Federal forecasters have flagged elevated heavy precipitation hazards across the West Coast corridor for the coming days, and local offices from Medford to San Francisco are already tracking overnight rain development and rising probability of precipitation through the weekend. What makes this event worth watching closely is not just the rainfall totals, which could reach several inches in coastal mountain ranges, but the compounding effect of successive waves hitting saturated ground over a four-day window.
Federal Outlooks Flag the West Coast Through February 19
The backbone of this forecast comes from two federal products that rarely align this clearly on a single region. The Weather Prediction Center’s medium-range hazards outlook, valid from February 15 to 19, 2026, identifies heavy precipitation hazards as most likely across the West Coast corridor during that window. That assessment is reinforced by the Climate Prediction Center’s week-2 guidance, valid February 16 through 22, which calls out heavy precipitation along coastal California and a moderate risk extending into southwestern Oregon.
The overlap between these two outlooks matters for anyone living or working in the target zones. When both centers highlight the same corridor, it signals that the pattern-level confidence is higher than a single model run would suggest. This is not a one-day event that might slide north or south with a minor track shift. Instead, the multi-day hazard window indicates a broader atmospheric setup that will steer moisture repeatedly into the same coastal and mountain terrain. That persistence is what separates a manageable rainstorm from one that triggers flooding and landslide concerns, especially where steep slopes and burn scars intersect with dense development and critical transportation routes.
When the Rain Arrives: Overnight Into the Weekend
Timing is the detail that turns a forecast into something people can act on. The NWS Medford office, which covers Southern Oregon and Northern California, shows rain developing overnight with a high chance of showers through the weekend. That means the first wave is already moving in as of late February 14, with conditions deteriorating through the early hours of February 15. For residents in the Rogue Valley or along the southern Oregon coast, the transition from dry to wet will be rapid, and morning commutes could coincide with the first substantial bands of rain and gusty onshore winds.
The Weather Prediction Center’s probabilistic QPF charts add finer resolution to this timeline, breaking the storm into six-hour windows and showing where probabilities of exceeding one inch, one and a half inches, or two inches are highest. These products are especially useful for emergency managers and commuters trying to identify the most intense bursts. The heaviest rates are expected in coastal ranges during concentrated windows rather than as a steady, all-day drizzle. That distinction matters because short, intense downpours on steep terrain generate runoff far more efficiently than the same total spread over 24 hours, increasing the likelihood of rapid rises on small streams, ponding on roadways, and localized debris flows in vulnerable canyons.
Target Zones: Coastal Ranges Bear the Brunt
Not every part of California and Oregon will experience this storm equally. The NWS San Francisco Bay Area forecast discussion projects roughly one to two inches at lower elevations and two to four inches in coastal ranges, with locally higher totals possible in favored terrain. Wind and thunder are also mentioned in the forecast, adding a secondary hazard layer for coastal communities and exposed ridgelines. The Bay Area and Central Coast sit squarely in the crosshairs of this system, with urban corridors from Santa Rosa through San Jose likely to see repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rain that could strain storm drains and slow travel on major highways…