For the next week or so, fair weather with high temperatures in the 60s to about 80 degrees can be expected across the North Bay as high pressure takes hold over California.
Beyond November 3rd, the models start to diverge, with the Canadian model and European AI model turning rather wet for Northern California, but the other models remaining mostly dry.
The European AI model is showing about a 20 percent improved accuracy over the physics-based European model, in come recent studies. It is currently showing low pressure digging pretty far south towards NorCal beginning around November 5th.
It also currently shows three separate disturbances bringing rain to our region between November 4th and 9th.
Right now only the Canadian model is as optimistic about rain for California, but the European model seems to be trending wetter.
In any case, the Euro AI ensemble model hints that a relatively wet period could be coming up in early November.
And, after being fairly dry for early November, the standard European model is beginning to jump on board over the past few model runs.
Of course, all of this is still 10 days away. Too far in the future for the forecasts to be trusted. We just have to wait to see if the models come into some sort of agreement. As we found out in the lead up to the last storm, a promisingly wet outlook can turn much drier as the event nears. We’ll cross our fingers that doesn’t happen this time…