Storm chances continue, but we’re beginning a downward trend in activity

In brief: Rain chances continue today, although coverage should be slightly less than Tuesday, with lower overall intensity. High pressure builds later this week to set up an extended period of hot and sunny weather.

The Woodlands gets whacked

All of the greater Houston region recorded rainfall on Tuesday, but as is often the case totals varied widely. Some locations southwest of the city picked up only a quarter of an inch, with most of the area picking up between 0.5 and 2 inches. However the exception to this came north of the city, in Montgomery County.

Over the last two days areas from The Woodlands north to Lake Conroe have picked up 5 to 7 inches of rainfall. A check of waterways in the area show that most streams, creeks, and bayous are elevated but generally within their banks. After a quiet night, water elevations are slowly falling. High water remains on a handful of roadways this morning.

As we’ll discuss below, the focus for showers and thunderstorms should shift further south today. So although some rains are possible in areas hardest hit in Montgomery County over the last couple of days, I don’t believe conditions will be problematic for these locations. However, out of an abundance of caution I am going to hold Stage 1 flood conditions in place through this afternoon.

Also, although flooding issues have not been particularly acute for most of the greater Houston region, the story is different in parts of Central and West Texas. We have more information on that situation on The Eyewall.

Wednesday

Conditions are not as favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms today in Houston as they were on Tuesday, but plenty of moisture remains in the atmosphere. For this reason much of the area is likely to see showers and thunderstorms today, although overall intensity should be lower. Rain chances are probably 50 percent for areas north of Interstate 10, and a bit higher for locations closer to the coast…

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